Stanford Updated Its "Canaries in the Coal Mine" Paper With ADP Payroll Data: Employment for 22–25-Year-Olds in AI-Exposed Jobs Sits 19% Lower
Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab revised "Canaries in the Coal Mine?" in August, now drawing on ADP payroll records covering millions of US workers through June 2026. The sharpest of its six facts: employment for 22-to-25-year-olds in AI-exposed occupations runs about 19% below the less-exposed comparison group, with no equivalent gap for experienced workers — and that gap has widened steadily since it was first documented in August 2025 at around 13%. The mechanism is reduced hiring rather than layoffs; declines concentrate where AI substitutes for human tasks while employment holds or rises where AI complements workers; and the adjustment shows up in headcount, not base pay. The authors stress these are descriptive early indicators, not causal estimates.











